Perspectives on finance, pricing, analytics and the decisions that create sustainable business value.
Two posts that best capture how I think about finance and value.
When invested capital grows faster than earnings, is the company destroying value or funding growth that hasn't matured yet — a framework for separating a temporary dip from a structural decline in returns.
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On McKinsey's 2026 State of AI report: 80%+ of respondents say AI improved individual productivity, but only 37% report a positive EBIT impact — the gap isn't adoption, it's redesigning workflows rather than just giving people faster tools.
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Five lessons from building the Revenue Management & Pricing function at METRO Türkiye: strategy, algorithms, governance, alignment and customer response.
“A tool is only an engine. Without the right strategy, governance and change management, it just automates yesterday's mistakes.”
When invested capital grows faster than earnings, is the company destroying value or funding growth that hasn't matured yet — a framework for separating a temporary dip from a structural decline in returns.
“Negative Economic Profit today does not necessarily mean negative NPV over the investment lifecycle.”
Joining the EPP 20 Years Global Pricing & RGM Summit in Amsterdam (17–18 November) — and why revenue growth management is about connecting pricing, customer economics and profitability, not just optimizing prices.
“RGM is not simply about optimizing prices.”
A five-level Controlling Maturity Curve, from accounting reliability to enterprise value creation, and why higher levels build on financial discipline rather than replace it.
“Maturity is cumulative, not substitutive.”
On McKinsey's 2026 State of AI report: 80%+ of respondents say AI improved individual productivity, but only 37% report a positive EBIT impact — the gap isn't adoption, it's redesigning workflows rather than just giving people faster tools.
“Employees may be working faster. The business may not be operating differently.”
A 70-second video on five practical rules for why profitable growth doesn't always generate cash — payment terms, inventory, cost-to-serve, and the capital that growth requires.
“Profitable growth doesn't always mean cash-generating growth.”
On IFRS 16: a simple ₺50,000/month, 5-year lease example where accounting treatment alone lifts EBITDA by ₺600,000 while the cash commitment and underlying economics stay exactly the same — paired with an interactive lease simulator.
“One number may improve while the economics remain exactly the same.”
On IFRS 15: the five-step model connecting contract terms to the revenue number — and why orders booked, invoices issued, revenue recognised and cash collected shouldn't be used interchangeably.
“Each measure serves a purpose. The risk arises when teams use them interchangeably.”
On IAS 2 / NRV: the same product can show a +1.96% margin on price alone and a −2.56% result once purchase and selling costs are factored in — built as an interactive simulator to make the discussion tangible.
“The difference is in what the calculation includes.”
İstanbul stayed the most expensive region throughout, but İzmir closed the gap and Balıkesir–Çanakkale jumped from 12th to 3rd in a single year — reading TurkStat's Regional Price Level Index.
“The gap between İzmir and İstanbul narrowed from 8.97 to 2.53 index points.”
Food stayed the largest spending category, but transport closed the gap on housing and utilities — a look at what 15 years of consumption data shows about shifting household priorities in Türkiye.
“By 2024, their shares were nearly equal, with transport slightly ahead.”
Part 3 of the RFM series: why a segment alone doesn't create value until the insight behind it becomes a commercial action — and how Segment Transition shows whether it actually worked.
“A snapshot tells you where your customers are. Segment Transition tells you where they are going.”
Part 2 of the RFM series: why static thresholds mislead across different customer groups, and how micro-segments and actionable segments work together.
“Keep the granularity. Make it actionable.”
Why segmentation isn't about boxing customers in: how Recency, Frequency and Monetary scores turn purchase behavior into 125 distinct customer profiles.
“Revenue tells you what happened. RFM helps explain how the customer behaves.”
On planning cycles: why the real question isn't which number to agree on, but which assumptions, risks and decision triggers sit behind it.
“The goal is not to predict the future perfectly. It is to make better decisions before the future becomes clear.”
On psychological safety: why it isn't about lowering the bar, but about creating the conditions where people challenge assumptions, admit mistakes and raise problems before they show up in the numbers.
“The cost of that silence rarely appears as a separate line in the P&L.”
The long-form piece behind the first four posts: why cash conversion, customer economics and capital allocation belong in the same management conversation — and how the customer-value simulator came out of it.
“Where should we grow, on what terms, and with how much capital?”
Turned the customer-value framework into an interactive AI-built simulator — move revenue, margin, discounts and collection days and watch economic value respond, then scale the impact across a portfolio.
“The model is illustrative, but the questions behind it are real.”
Beyond revenue and margin: how pricing, cost-to-serve, payment terms and capital needs shape customer value.
“Which customers actually create economic value?”
From company to channel, segment and customer: looking beyond averages to see where cash is trapped.
“Average is the enemy of cash visibility.”
Why growth does not always translate into cash—and why cash generation needs ownership across the business.
“Profitable growth is not the end of the story.”
